Ritwik Bhaduri

2021 · Studies in Microeconomics

SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rates in India: systematic review, meta-analysis and model-based estimation

Lauren Zimmermann, Subarna Bhattacharya, Soumik Purkayastha, Ritoban Kundu, Ritwik Bhaduri, Parikshit Ghosh, et al.

medRxiv preprint Journal article

Abstract

We synthesize the existing literature on the true SARS-CoV-2 excess deaths and infection fatality rates (IFR) in India through a systematic review followed by meta-analysis. Following PRISMA guidelines, databases PubMed, Embase, Global Index Medicus, and preprint servers were searched on July 3, 2021. Altogether, 4,765 initial citations were screened, resulting in 37 citations included in the narrative review and 19 studies with 41 datapoints included in the quantitative synthesis. Underreporting factors (URF) for cases (from serosurveys) range from 14.3–29.1 across four nationwide serosurveys; URFs for deaths (from excess death reports) range from 4.4–11.9, with cumulative excess deaths ranging from 1.79–4.9 million as of June 2021. Nationwide pooled IFR estimates are 0.097% (95% CI: 0.067–0.140) based on reported deaths and 0.365%–0.485% (95% CI: 0.264–0.685) when accounting for death underreporting. We also provide updated epidemiological model-based estimates using an extension of the SEIR model with data from April 1, 2020 to June 30, 2021, which largely reconcile with the empirical findings.

BibTeX

@article{zimmermann2021sars,
  title={{SARS-CoV-2} infection fatality rates in India: systematic review, meta-analysis and model-based estimation},
  author={Lauren Zimmermann and Subarna Bhattacharya and Soumik Purkayastha and Ritoban Kundu and Ritwik Bhaduri and Parikshit Ghosh and others},
  journal={Studies in Microeconomics},
  year={2021},
  doi={10.1177/23210222211054324},
  abstract={We synthesize the existing literature on SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rates (IFR) in India through systematic review and meta-analysis. Nationwide pooled IFR estimates are 0.097% (95% CI: 0.067-0.140) based on reported deaths and 0.365%-0.485% when accounting for death underreporting. Underreporting factors for cases range from 14.3-29.1 across four nationwide serosurveys; for deaths they range from 4.4-11.9, with cumulative excess deaths of 1.79-4.9 million as of June 2021. Updated SEIR model-based estimates largely reconcile with the empirical findings.}
}